Every fall, two nonprofit advocacy groups — The Senior Citizens League (TSCL) and AARP — publish their own projections for the coming year's Social Security Cost-of-Living Adjustment (COLA) weeks before the Social Security Administration confirms the real number. For 2027, those estimates are already circulating. Here's what they say, why they don't always agree, and a free 2027 COLA calculator to see what either one would mean for your own benefit.
Social security cola 2027 estimate: what's on the table
As of the latest data (August 2026 inflation reports), TSCL's estimate sits at 3.5%, and AARP is projecting 3.6%. Both are meaningfully higher than the confirmed 2026 COLA of 2.8%. Other analysts have published slightly different numbers in the same range — CRFB at 3.2%, independent analyst Mary Johnson at 3.4% — all built from the same underlying inflation data but updated on different schedules.
How much will my social security check go up in 2027
COLA is a straight percentage increase applied to your current monthly benefit, so the dollar impact depends entirely on what you're already receiving. At TSCL's 3.5% estimate, a $1,976/month benefit (roughly the average retired-worker benefit) would rise by about $69/month; at AARP's 3.6%, about $71/month. Our calculator lets you plug in your own current benefit and see both scenarios — plus a field to try your own percentage guess — side by side.
TSCL cola estimate calculator: why the number keeps moving
TSCL's own 2027 estimate has shifted through the year as new inflation data arrived — from 3.8% in June 2026, to 3.6% in July, to 3.5% by August. That's normal: COLA is calculated from the average CPI-W reading across July, August, and September, so estimates published before September data is final are always provisional. The real number depends on how prices move in the final month of that window.
When does the official number come out
The SSA is expected to announce the confirmed 2027 COLA on October 14, 2026. Until then, every percentage you see — including the ones in this calculator — is an outside estimate, not an official figure. We'll update this calculator and page once the SSA confirms the real number.
Try the 2027 Social Security COLA Calculator → · Want to see how your benefit was calculated in the first place? See the Social Security Calculator.
Sources: The Senior Citizens League, COLA Watch; AARP, "Social Security COLA Preview: Will 2027 Benefits Go Up?"; CNBC Select, "How Much Will the 2027 Social Security COLA Be?"; SSA, "2026 Cost-of-Living Adjustment (COLA) Fact Sheet." This is general information, not financial advice.
