The U.S. Energy Information Administration published its Winter Fuels Outlook for 2026-27 on October 6, 2026. It forecasts average residential prices and household heating spending for November 2026 through March 2027. The short version: homes that heat with natural gas or propane should spend a little less than last winter, and homes that heat with electricity or heating oil should spend more.
How much will heating cost this winter by fuel type?
EIA's forecast for average household heating spending this winter, compared with last winter:
- Natural gas: about $640, down 9%
- Electricity: about $1,196, up 4%
- Propane: about $1,246, down 3%
- Heating oil: about $2,115, up 21%
These are national averages. Your bill depends on your region, your home and how cold your local winter turns out.
Natural gas heating cost per therm
EIA forecasts an average residential natural gas price of $13.44 per thousand cubic feet this winter, 9% lower than last winter. Most utility bills use therms, and that works out to roughly $1.30 per therm. A household using 100 therms a month over a 5-month season would spend about $648 on gas at that price, before delivery charges and local differences.
Propane vs heating oil cost this winter
Propane is forecast at $2.52 per gallon, 2% lower than last winter. Heating oil is the outlier: EIA forecasts $5.26 per gallon, 34% higher than last winter, because distillate fuel supplies are tight. A milder forecast for the Northeast, where most oil-heated homes are, offsets part of that rise. That is why the expected bill goes up 21% rather than the full 34%.
Electric heat cost per month
Residential electricity is forecast at 18.23 cents per kWh this winter, 3% higher than last winter. A home using 1,500 kWh a month for heating would spend about $273 a month at that rate. The price per kWh looks high next to gas, but a heat pump can deliver several units of heat for each unit of electricity it uses, so your system's efficiency matters as much as the price.
Will this forecast change?
Yes. EIA updates these numbers with each monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook, and the next one comes out on November 10, 2026. A colder or milder winter than expected will move the actual numbers. You can enter your own usage and season length in the estimator to see your own number.
Try the Winter Heating Cost Estimator →
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Winter Fuels Outlook 2026-27, published with the October 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook (October 6, 2026), eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/perspectives/2026/10-winterfuels/article.php.