Snow Day Probability Estimator
Score breakdown (this is the whole calculation — nothing hidden)
This is a transparent, rule-based score you input yourself — not an official prediction, AI model, or district-specific historical data.
Free snow day probability estimator that shows its work — enter forecasted snowfall, temperature, day of week, and your district's closure tendency to get a transparent score with every factor's contribution shown separately, not one unexplained percentage.
How it works
- Enter the forecasted snowfall/ice amount and temperature for tomorrow
- Pick the day of week and how lenient or strict your district usually is about closing
- See a 0-100 score with a plain-language label and a breakdown of how much each factor contributed
Frequently asked questions
Is this an official prediction from my school district?
No — this is an independent, rule-based estimate you can fully see the math for. It is not affiliated with any school district and doesn't use hidden AI models or historical district-specific data.
Why does the score show a breakdown instead of just one number?
Most snow day predictors give a single black-box percentage with no explanation, which is impossible to sanity-check. This tool shows exactly how much snowfall, temperature, day of week, and your district's tendency each contributed, so you can judge the inputs yourself.
What if my district isn't 'average'?
Pick lenient if your district closes for even modest snow/ice, or strict if it rarely closes. That single setting shifts the whole score up or down to roughly match your district's real behavior.
Related tools
From the blog
Update history
- 2026-09-28 Launched: transparent, rule-based snow day score — shows the contribution of snowfall, temperature, day-of-week, and district closure tendency separately instead of one black-box percentage.