The Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets September 15–16, 2026, and for the first time in months, markets are leaning toward a rate hike rather than a cut. The CME FedWatch Tool currently prices a 55% chance the Fed raises its benchmark rate by a quarter percentage point — a reversal from earlier in the year, when many economists expected the Fed to keep cutting.
Where the Fed's rate stands now
At its previous meeting, held July 28–29, 2026, the FOMC left the federal funds rate unchanged in a range of 3.50%–3.75%, where it has sat since December 2025. Three economic reports land before the September decision and will shape it: the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on September 10, the FOMC meeting itself on September 15–16, and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index on September 25.
Where mortgage rates stand today
The 30-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 6.66% in Freddie Mac's survey for the week ending August 27, 2026. Mortgage rates don't move in lockstep with the Fed's benchmark rate — they respond more directly to the bond market's expectations for future Fed policy — but a rate hike, or even the market pricing one in more heavily, tends to push mortgage rates higher rather than lower. Forecasters currently expect rates to stay roughly flat to modestly lower through September, holding above the 6.40% quarterly-average forecast that major housing authorities had projected for this point in the year.
What this means if you're shopping for a mortgage
A quarter-point move in the Fed's rate doesn't translate one-to-one into a quarter-point move in your mortgage rate, but even small shifts change what a given loan amount costs over time. Our mortgage calculator lets you plug in today's 6.66% rate — or any rate you're quoted — against different loan amounts and terms to see the actual monthly payment difference before you lock one in.
Sources: FOMC meeting dates, prior decision, and rate-hike odds via Yahoo Finance and The Mortgage Reports; current 30-year mortgage rate via Freddie Mac's survey as reported by CBS News.
